Super Bowl Betting Lines

Understanding What They Really Mean

Super Bowl betting lines may be one of the most misunderstood elements of the
betting game. An important part of Super Bowl betting is to understand the job
of the odds makers. Their job is not to pick the winners and losers for the
games. Their job is to balance the bets so that the same amount is wagered
on each side. Read on for complete details and to gain a better understanding
of how the point spread is determined.

Insider Betting Secrets Revealed:

How the Sportsbooks Determine Super Bowl Betting Lines!

Successful Super Bowl handicapping starts with throwing out those old strategies
and systems that, on the surface, seem like they should work, but in reality
never do. When most sports gamblers set out to make pro Super Bowl picks, they
call upon all manners of NFL statistics as well as their knowledge of the sport
to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the spread. Seems
logical, right?

Wrong!

This is how most people go about handicapping games, and almost everyone loses.
To make enough winning NFL picks to beat the sportsbooks' lines over the long
run, you must begin by analyzing the line on a given game to match the perspective
of the odds makers.

This can be accomplished by looking backwards to determine why the line on
a given game involving 2 teams has been set at a particular number, adjusted
to a particular number, or maintained at a particular number. How did the line
originate? Why is the line the way it is?

By analyzing the line in reverse, you'll be able to do two important things
for increasing the success of your NFL Super Bowl betting picks:

1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge,
and other unprofitable techniques to pick which team you think will cover the
point spread.

2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications in the
NFL line on a given game to identify which team the odds makers think will
cover.

Looking for indications in the sportsbooks' lines and point spreads is your
best bet for picking which team the odds makers and insiders think will cover
the spread in a given game.

The key is to understand that the sportsbooks' Super Bowl betting lines and
Super Bowl betting point spreads are the odds makers' instruments for dividing
the monetary betting action in half for a given game. In other words, the very
existence of betting lines and point spreads gives a sportsbook an element
of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game.

To start, the line on a game is not the odds makers' assessment of what the
difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular
Super Bowl odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports
gamblers.

Odds makers are masters at using Super Bowl-betting lines and point spreads
to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments in a given line
or point spread odds makers can sway large numbers of sports gamblers who have
not yet made a decision on which team to bet on in a game to place their bet
on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have
you been undecided on a game with a 3-point spread only to make your decision
after the line moved down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2? The movement in the line
was the book's effort to balance betting action, and often times it can have
a direct result on your betting decision.

Of course, when Super Bowl betting lines and point spreads are moved, it can
also sway sports gamblers who have already placed a bet on a game to "put
down" additional action on that game; or even reverse their direction
and bet the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both
sides. But as far as the odds makers are concerned, keeping the betting action
split at each odds line number (dollar number) or point spread is the key.
Doing so allows the sportsbooks to make their juice.

By controlling the Super Bowl betting odds and Super Bowl betting point spreads,
the bookmakers have an amazing amount of control over who bets what amount,
and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep
the action divided in half. However, before odds makers can even begin to make
adjustments to a particular betting line to keep action divided in half, they
must choose a starting point or "opening line" for the game.

When creating opening lines, the incentive for a sportsbook's odds maker is
to choose Super Bowl lines that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action
in half. Doing so guarantees that they can make the most juice.

If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the line can be adjusted
to draw even action, the more juice the sportsbook can guarantee for itself.
Simply put, the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even,
the more overall risk the sportsbook is exposed to, and the lower the profit
they stand to make. This is because the sportsbook can get stuck with uneven
betting action for any given NFL odds line or NFL point spread number, which
cuts into profits.

Therefore, you can see that the odds makers would be very interested in knowing
what specific Super Bowl betting point spread number or Super Bowl betting odds
line number would draw even betting action for a given game before having to
release the opening line for that game to the public!

But before odds makers could know what an opening line on a given game would
need to be set at to draw even action, odds makers would need to know which
team sports gamblers planned to put their money on in advance of that game!
And for a variety of different NFL odds line numbers. This brings us to the
odds makers' greatest strength when it comes to using betting lines and point
spreads to divide betting action in half.

The odds makers' greatest strength for dividing betting action in half is
based on the fact that most sports gamblers make their betting decisions by
relying on some level of information they have collected about the match up.
To cope, odds makers have developed techniques to allow them to measure the
level of information that prospective sports gamblers know about a given game,
and odds makers can look at this information before having to release the opening
line for that game.

One method odds makers use to measure the information level known to sports
gamblers about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test
line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "insiders" to
bet into.

For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test lines,
it's like having access to free money. Because if the betting line ends up
being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for
a potential double hit.

But it's well worth it for the odds makers to give these insiders the sandwich
opportunity. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to
place bets against early test lines, odds makers get a chance to determine
whether or not the insiders are betting the same side in a game, whether insiders
are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of
how much they are betting.

Collecting this type of information about how insiders are evaluating their
selection on a given game helps the odds makers make an assessment of what
the opening line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action
from the combination of inside sports gamblers and general public sports gamblers
on a given game.

Of course odds makers also study general public betting patterns. But as a
rule they are more concerned with measuring insider betting interest because
insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders
can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game
than anyone else.

For example, insiders may know:

• What types of strategies the teams plan to use


• Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play


• Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing
  styles


• Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb

Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside info/inside
reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the
game that most people simply wouldn't believe it. The level of information
that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since
odds makers are providing insiders with an early test line to bet into so that
they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the
opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, sportsbooks' Super Bowl
odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is
known to insiders about a given game. This is the golden egg of NFL Super Bowl
handicapping.

So now you know the golden egg of Super Bowl betting handicapping. It's not
the teams that matter. It's not the stats that matter. It's the line on the
game that matters.

posted by super bowl betting @ 4:24 PM

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